Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures saw firm to 2 1/4 cent gains in the front months on Wednesday, with deferred contracts lower. Spillover from beans was supportive today. This morning’s EIA report showed ethanol production (and corn consumption) in the week of June 7 was the largest since last August. Production was 1.096 million barrels per day, up 52,000 bpd from the week prior. Ethanol stocks dropped 751,000 barrels to 21.802 million barrels, the lowest figure since last July. Export Sales estimates ahead of Thursday’s weekly report for the week of June 6 range from 250,000-550,000 MT for old crop and 100,000-300,000 MT for new crop. USDA raised their old crop corn cash average price by a dime on Tuesday to $3.60. New crop was bumped up 50 cents to an average price of $3.80.

Jul 19 Corn closed at $4.30, up 2 1/4 cents,

Sep 19 Corn closed at $4.38 1/4, up 2 cents,

Dec 19 Corn closed at $4.48 1/2, up 1 1/2 cents

Mar 20 Corn closed at $4.56 1/4, up 3/4 cent

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybean futures closed Wednesday with 17 to 18 3/4 cent gains in the nearby contracts. Soymeal was up $5.20/ton, with bean oil 34 points higher. A look at the 7-day QPF shows 3-6 inches for most of the ECB over the next week, with most of the totals later this weekend. With soybean planting progress 28% behind normal on Sunday, the rains threaten to even further delay progress. Analysts expect USDA to show 200,000-500,000 MT in old crop soybean sale for the week that ended on June 6, with 100,000-300,000 MT for new crop. In their US balance sheet, USDA trimmed old crop cash average price by a nickel to $8.50, with their new crop cash price up 15 cents to $8.25. USDA’s chief economist stated they did not have enough info to change the US new crop soybean production numbers, but he expects an adjustment in the July report.

Jul 19 Soybeans closed at $8.78, up 18 3/4 cents,

Aug 19 Soybeans closed at $8.84 3/4, up 18 1/2 cents,

Sep 19 Soybeans closed at $8.91 3/4, up 18 1/2 cents,

Jan 20 Soybeans closed at $9.17 3/4, up 17 1/2 cents,

Jul 19 Soybean Meal closed at $319.50, up $5.10,

Jul 19 Soybean Oil closed at $27.56, up $0.34

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat futures settled with 3 to 10 1/2 cent gains in most winter wheat contracts on Wednesday, with MPLS steady to 5 cents lower. SRW keeps extending their premium to HRW, now at 63 1/2 cents as rains in the ECB are causing further issues with an already below normal condition SRW crop. Forecasts for the eastern half of the Southern Plains show heavy rainfall totals, also supporting the HRW market. The trade range of estimates for the final day of the MY for old crop at net reductions of 50,000 to sales of 50,000 MT. For new crop sales in the first week of the MY, expectations are 250,000-450,000 MT. The USDA left their old crop US cash average prices UNCH @ $5.20 yesterday, with new crop up 40 cents from last month to $5.10. For the world numbers WOAB raised Russian new crop production by 1 to 78 MMT, with domestic use and exports also up 1 MMT. Ukraine’s production estimate was also up 1 to 30 MMT.

Jul 19 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.26 1/4, up 8 1/4 cents,

Jul 19 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.62 3/4, up 5 1/4 cents,

Jul 19 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.64 3/4, down 4 3/4 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Live cattle futures ended the Wednesday session with most contracts $1.025 to 1.65 lower. Feeder cattle futures were down 32.5 cents to $1.30. The CME feeder cattle index was up 34 cents to $133.29 on June 11. Wholesale boxed beef prices were lower on Wednesday afternoon. Choice boxes were down 24 cents at $222.15 with Select boxes $1.52 lower @ $206.73. USDA estimated week to date FI cattle slaughter @ 364,000 head. That is 14,000 head larger than the same point last year and up 4,000 from last week. Wednesday’s FCE showed sales of $113 on 340 of the 663 head offered, all from KS.

Jun 19 Cattle closed at $109.650, down $1.025,

Aug 19 Cattle closed at $105.200, down $1.625,

Oct 19 Cattle closed at $106.375, down $1.475,

Aug 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $137.800, down $0.325

Sep 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $138.000, down $0.600

Oct 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $138.150, down $0.825

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean Hog futures were steady to $1.05 lower in most contracts on Wednesday. The CME Lean Hog Index was down 29 cents from the previous day @ $79.66 on June 10. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was down $1.25 on Wednesday afternoon at $82.51. The picnic was the only primal reported higher. The national average base hog was up 83 cents at $76.03 per hundred pounds. This week’s estimated FI hog slaughter through Wednesday was 1.421 million head. That is 2,000 head above last week and 83,000 head larger than the same week last year. The Chinese ag ministry pegged their hog herd in May down 22.9% from last year, with the sow numbers down 23.9% yr/yr.

Jun 19 Hogs closed at $79.025, down $0.050,

Jul 19 Hogs closed at $84.375, unch,

Aug 19 Hogs closed at $82.525, down $0.450

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton futures saw some short covering on Wednesday, with most nearby contracts up 67 to 95 points. USDA trimmed new crop cash average price for cotton by a penny to 64 cents/lb on Tuesday. USDA will release their weekly Export Sales report tomorrow The Cotlook A index for June 11 was up 50 points from the previous day to 76.85 cents/lb. The weekly Average World Price (AWP) from USDA is now 61.51 cents/lb through Thursday.

Jul 19 Cotton closed at 66.570, up 92 points,

Oct 19 Cotton closed at 66.410, up 95 points

Dec 19 Cotton closed at 65.880, up 84 points

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353

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