Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures are showing 2 to 3 cent gains at midday. USDA raised their old crop corn carryout estimate by 145 mbu to 2.34 bbu, on a cut to several demand categories. As expected, they used acreage numbers from the June 28 report, as well as leaving projected yield at 166 bpa this morning. That caused a 195 mbu jump in new crop production to 13.875 bbu. New crop ending stocks were raised by 335 mbu to 2.01 bbu. The world table raised Argentina’s corn crop at 51 MMT. World carryout for 18/19 was up 2.82 MMT to 328.75 MMT, with new crop going opposite of expectations, up 8.4 MMT to 298.82 MMT. The weekly Export Sales report this morning showed an improvement to old crop corn bookings in the week of July 4, at 505,396 MT. That was 6-week high and 25.69% larger than the same week last year. New crop disappointed, with net reduction s of 108,362 MT. Japan was the lead buyer of 444,800 MT for 18/19, but cancelled 120,000 for 19/20.

JUL 19 Corn is at $4.36 1/2, up 2 1/4 cents,

SEP 19 Corn is at $4.38, up 3 cents,

DEC 19 Corn is at $4.42 1/2, up 3 cents

MAR 20 Corn is at $4.49 1/4, up 3 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybean futures are up 1 to 2 cents in most front months, excluding soon to expire July. Nearby July soybean meal is up $1.90/ton, with soy oil UNCH. The monthly WASDE from USDA showed 18/19 soybean ending stocks down 20 mbu from June at 1.05 bbu. Most of that was an increase to residual use. Production for 2019 was slashed by 305 mbu to 3.845 bbu this morning. That came via the drop in acreage shown June 28 and a 1 bpa reduction to yield at 48.5 bpa. New crop carryout is back below the 1 bbu mark, being trimmed by 250 mbu to 795. World ending stocks saw very few adjustments for 18/19 to 112.98 MMT (+0.18), with new crop down a sharp 8.13 to 104.53 MMT primarily on the US cut. This morning’s USDA Export Sales report tallied old crop soybean sales at 132,163 MT for the week of 7/4. That was a 9-week low and down 16.7% yr/yr. New crop sales totaled 129,500 MT for that week. Meal bookings were shown at 52,665 MT, with soy oil at 8,612 MT.

JUL 19 Soybeans are at $8.92, down 1 cent,

AUG 19 Soybeans are at $8.95 1/2, up 1 cent,

SEP 19 Soybeans are at $9.02, up 1 3/4 cents,

NOV 19 Soybeans are at $9.14, up 1 1/4 cents,

JUL 19 Soybean Meal is at $311.00, up $1.90,

JUL 19 Soybean Oil is at $27.97, unch,

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat futures are posting double digit gains in most contracts on Thursday. As we switch to new crop wheat on the USDA balance sheets, USDA cut 72 mbu from their carryout projection to 1 bbu. That was helped by a known 30 mbu smaller carry-in and an increase to expected feed & residual and exports. Production was pegged at 1.921 bbu, up 18 mbu from June. HRW was estimated at 804.5, SRW at 259.2 mbu, and other spring at 572.2 mbu. Overall wheat yield was raised by 1.3 to 50 bpa, with winter wheat up the same amount to 51.8 bpa. All wheat export sales during the week of July 4 were tallied at 284,370 MT, more than double the same week last year at slightly above the week prior.

SEP 19 CBOT Wheat is at $5.16 1/2, up 11 3/4 cents,

SEP 19 KCBT Wheat is at $4.54 3/4, up 13 1/4 cents,

SEP 19 MGEX Wheat is at $5.38 1/2, up 9 3/4 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Live cattle futures are mixed in most contracts, with front months higher and deferred contracts lower. Feeder cattle futures are up 25 to 52.5 cents at midday. The CME feeder cattle index was up 32 cents @ $135.76 on July 9. Wholesale boxed beef prices were slightly lower again on Thursday morning. Choice boxes were down 24 cents at $214.18 with Select boxes 3 cents lower @ $190.86. USDA estimated week to date FI cattle slaughter at 360,000 head. That was 5,000 below last week and 4,000 head above the same week last year. Cash trade has yet to develop this week, with light bids of $180-$182 being reported in the North and $109 in the South. Beef export sales for the July 4 week were 21,458 MT, with Shipments of 14,912 MT. USDA showed a 75 million lb reduction to 2019 US beef production to 27.129 billion lbs, with most of that loss in the 3rd and 4th quarters. Production for 2020 was left UNCH at 27.42 billion lbs.

AUG 19 Cattle are at $107.875, up $0.250,

OCT 19 Cattle are at $109.175, up $0.200,

DEC 19 Cattle are at $113.600, up $0.125,

AUG 19 Feeder Cattle are at $142.875, up $0.525

SEP 19 Feeder Cattle are at $143.275, up $0.425

OCT 19 Feeder Cattle are at $143.375, up $0.550

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean Hog futures are down 5 cents to $1.725 in most contracts at midday. The CME Lean Hog Index was down 48 cents from the previous day @ $70.77 on July 9. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was down another $1.40 in the Thursday AM report at $70.20. The belly was the only primal reported higher, up 36 cents. The national average base hog price was up 31 cents on Thursday at $67.85. Estimated week to date FI hog slaughter was 1.435 million head. That was up 24,000 head from last week and 76,000 head larger than same week last year. The weekly Export Sales report showed just 11,253 MT of pork sales in the week of July 4, with 76 MT for China. Shipments were still decent, at 25,090 MT, with 7,953 MT headed to China. US pork production was raised 360 million lbs for 2019 by USDA estimates to 27.648 million lbs, with 140 million of that jump in the 4th quarter alone. Estimated production for 2020 was raised 185 million lbs to 28.41 billion.

JUL 19 Hogs are at $71.575, down $0.175,

AUG 19 Hogs are at $80.050, down $1.675

OCT 19 Hogs are at $72.250, down $1.000

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton futures are down 32 to 92 points on Thursday. The monthly USDA report this morning showed old crop cotton ending stocks up 350,000 bales from June at 5 million bales, with a reduction to both domestic usage and exports. The new crop balance sheet saw a similar increase, mainly from the larger carryin, up 300,000 bales to 6.7 million bales. World stocks saw a 1.74 million bale jump to 79.27 million bales for old crop, with new crop up 3.16 million to 80.42 million bales. All upland cotton export sales in the week that ended on July 4 were tallied at 53,406 RB for old crop, with China cancelling 10,041 RB. New crop bookings were shown at just 38,447 RB, a 12-week low. Total sales were down 75.38% from the same week a year ago. The Cotlook A index for July 10 was down 235 points from the previous day at 74.30 cents/lb. The USDA AWP is 59.32 cents/lb, and will be updated later today.

OCT 19 Cotton is at 63.22, down 32 points,

DEC 19 Cotton is at 63.13, down 69 points

MAR 19 Cotton is at 64.21, down 85 points

MAY 20 Cotton is at 65.17, down 92 points

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353

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